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Best Picture:
Eric Russell: “Chicago” has all the momentum from the Golden Globes to win this award, but this may be the closest race in years for Best Picture. The second “Lord of the Rings” installment was better than the first, but it’s up against stiff competition this year. “The Pianist” is Roman Polanski’s first film in several years and could win some votes from the older members of the Academy. “The Hours” and “Gangs of New York” should challenge, but musicals are the new epic, so look for “Chicago” to steal the show.
Matt Shaer: Pre-Oscar murmurs have already discounted the “Lord of the Rings” sequel for one simple reason: those in the know say the Academy will want Peter Jackson to win next year as the final victory in his special effects tour de force. And why not? “The Two Towers” is inherently more deserving of the Best Picture crown than “Gangs” or “Chicago,” if only for its cinematic brunt. But this loser is placing his money on “The Hours,” an Oscar-friendly, heart-wrenching drama that produced more tears in theaters across the country than “The Two Towers” had orcs.
Best Director:
ER: Since Martin Scorsese has never won this award, he has to be the front-runner for “Gangs of New York.” Pedro Almodovar must have made a wonderful film to get nominated in this category for his foreign flick, but can he win? Polanski would be an interesting winner, but since he is in exile from the United States, he probably can’t compete here. Rob Marshall (“Chicago”) and Steven Daldry (“The Hours”) should both be proud of their films, but they will be clapping for Scorsese when the time comes.
MS: If Polanski had kept his hands to himself, or at least out of a 13-year-old’s bathing suit, he might have had this category wrapped. But will the Academy give the win to a director who can’t enter the country? Doubtful. The win should and will go to Scorsese, if only for the monumental fact that this Hollywood icon has never been recognized in the greatest of all Hollywood events.
Best Actor:
ER: Michael Caine is a wonderful actor, but he has won enough awards and not enough people saw “The Quiet American.” Adrian Brody is a little too young to win for “The Pianist,” but he’ll get more nominations in the future. Nicolas Cage may be a sleeper for his dual role in “Adaptation.” The Academy eats roles like this up. Jack Nicholson is the sentimental favorite for “About Schmidt” since he is vying to become the first-ever male to win the lead actor category three times. But Daniel Day-Lewis’s tremendous role as Bill the Butcher in “Gangs of New York” is the most deserving.
MS: The Best Actor category very well could be the most contentious of the entire ceremony. Although Jack Nicholson won the Golden Globe for his “About Schmidt” role — usually a sealed guarantee of an Oscar win — Nicolas Cage and Adrian Brody have potential here. If only Cage would stop accepting every movie that came his way, and save himself for roles like the protagonist in “Adaptation,” I think the academy would be more willing to take him seriously. As is, however, this category belongs to Day-Lewis — a consummate professional in a truly colorful role.
Best Actress:
ER: Renee Zellweger shined in “Chicago,” a movie filled with many talented actors, so she has to be the favorite. Not many people thought she could pull this role off. Nicole Kidman’s turn as Virginia Woolf in “The Hours” seems to be Zellweger’s only challenge. Julianne Moore is a brilliant and diverse actress, but “Far From Heaven” may not be the kind of movie the Academy likes to reward.
MS: Julianne Moore can be ruled out here, if only for the company she is keeping in the Best Actress category. Zellweger is the favorite, and probably will capture the Oscar, but only Kidman is actually deserving here. Who else could pull off such a moving performance with a fake nose like that?
Best Supporting Actor:
ER: The roles of Paul Newman (“Road to Perdition”) and John C. Reilly (“Chicago”) in their movies were too small to win here. “Catch Me If You Can” was a little too mainstream for Chris Walken to triumph. Ed Harris and Chris Cooper should form a two-man race.
MS: Reilly, Reilly, Reilly: a “that guy” actor who consistently outshines the leading men and women he plays beside. Give the guy some recognition!
Best Supporting Actress:
ER: Even though Catherine Zeta-Jones’s role as Velma Kelley in “Chicago” was probably more of a lead role, she should run away with the trophy in this category. Meryl Streep and Julianne Moore will probably cancel each other out for “The Hours,” but the Academy loves Streep. Kathy Bates (“About Schmidt”) and Queen Latifah (“Chicago”) are on the outside looking in.
MS: Even though Kathy Bates bared more of her naked body than my stomach could conceivably handle, she should have this category, by the, er, neck. Queen Latifah is a rapper, Streep wins more awards than Norah Jones, Moore would just be stepping on Streep’s feet, and Zeta-Jones was the lead role, not the supporter. Besides, we all remember that face Bates made in “Misery.” Does the competition want to get hacked to bits? I think not.
Bangor Daily News