News

UM faculty present report on climate to Gov. Baldacci

By Aislinn Sarnacki

Posted on Feb. 26, 2009, at 12:00 a.m.

AUGUSTA – A dozen University of Maine faculty members presented the report, “Maine’s Climate Future: An Initial Assessment,” to Gov. John Baldacci at the Wednesday morning cabinet meeting at the governor’s home – the Blaine House in Augusta.

The report maps out Maine’s past, present and future climate and notes trends such as increased temperature, increased precipitation, rising sea levels and hydrologic changes in snow melt, lake ice-out and spring runoff.

“I had an opportunity to talk to the president [Obama] about this after the election. I think, as he said last night, he is serious about it, and I think this is a way to keep the issue in front of people . It’s a very sobering report,” Baldacci said.

In late 2007, Baldacci asked UMaine to prepare a preliminary analysis of the effects of climate change in Maine during the 21st century. UMaine gathered 75 scholars from the university and around the state to work on the yearlong project.

“This is, in fact, the state of the art for our understanding of the climate change in Maine. UMaine has within its bounds the very people that are instrumental in understanding climate change. We have been involved from the very beginning, and we want to provide our expertise,” said professor Paul Mayewski, director of UMaine’s Climate Change Institute.

Even if a coordinated response succeeds in reducing greenhouse gas emissions, climate change will continue because elevated levels of carbon dioxide can persist in the atmosphere for thousands of years to come, the report states. In the next 100 years, they predict a 5- to 10-degree Fahrenheit temperature increase in all regions of Maine for all seasons.

“This doesn’t necessarily mean disaster. This time of year it probably wouldn’t bother too many Mainers to have a higher temperature or have a longer golf season . but the chemistry of the ecosystem will change. It will not be the same 100 years from now. We are quite confident that’s the case,” said Professor Emeritus George Jacobson, one of the report’s primary authors.

“This is clearly something that will serve as a focal point and a beacon to all of us – where we need to look at and what we need to do to make sure we are having a positive impact on our children’s and grandchildren’s lives,” Baldacci said.

Sections of the report address how climate changes will affect Maine ecosystems and economic sectors such as agriculture, forestry and tourism. They predict warming water will reduce the distribution of cold-water fisheries. And in forests, warmer temperature will increase disease, insect infestations and fires.

Farmers are already realizing their growing season has expanded a couple of weeks, Baldacci said.

“There may be opportunities for different kinds of forest products. We might be able to have different kinds of crops and opportunities there,” Jacobson said.

It wasn’t long ago that people didn’t want to talk about adapting, Jacobson said. It was viewed as throwing in the towel and allowing carbon emission and pollution to persist.

“We’d be doing really good if we could completely stop emissions tomorrow. It won’t happen unless an asteroid comes,” Jacobson said.

“One of the points of this report is even if humans collectively do a good job in the future, there’s no way we can stop the climate from changing. We need to adapt to this system and be looking for opportunities for things that are new and be able to deal with the challenges,” Jacobson said.

The report also touches on alternative energy sources. Imported fossil fuels account for nearly three-quarters of all energy used in Maine. More than 80 percent of Maine households heat with fuel oil – the largest percentage in the United States, according to the report.

“I know that Governor Baldacci and many of us are interesting in finding as many ways that we can to have renewable energy in the state,” Jacobson said.

The report describes Maine’s potential for wind, tidal and wood-fired electricity generation. Maine is listed as the best state for wind energy development on the East Coast, and several of North America’s most robust tidal energy sites are located in Maine, according to the report.

The report is a way of making the issues more public and more obvious, Mayewski said, and it shows the growing relationship between state agency and universities.

The field of climate change has evolved rapidly over the past 30 years, according to Mayewski. The February 2009 report is a broad analysis based on a global model. The Climate Change Institute is now working on a new model of 10-by-10-mile blocks to investigate changes occurring on a regional scale in greater detail.

“We need to keep a strong finger on this,” Mayewski said.

The report was prepared under the leadership of UMaine’s Climate Change Institute and Maine Sea Grant with support from several UMaine organizations and departments: the vice president for research; Office of the Dean, College of Natural Sciences, Forestry and Agriculture; Center for Research on Sustainable Forests; Senator George J. Mitchell Center for Environmental and Watershed Research; Forest Bioproducts Research Initiative; and the Department of Plant, Soil and Environmental Sciences.

“We are proud of this report, and I can say with assurance that there’s not another group of scholars in this world that could have written this report of Maine. We did this with great enthusiasm,” Jacobson said.

The 70-page report is available for download at climatechage.umaine.edu/maineclimatefuture.

Three-thousand copies will be printed, available upon e-mail request.

“It’s a thing every University of Maine student ought to read,” Mayewski said.

Campus Currents: John Baldacci