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Column: Saints, Vikings favored out of the NFC

By Michael Pare

Posted on Monday, November 23rd, 2009, 12:45 am

1. New Orleans Saints (NFC South Champ)

The Saints are sitting atop the NFC at 9-0 with home court throughout the conference rounds all but wrapped up. Even if New Orleans lost out, they would likely still garner a playoff spot, but there is little chance of that happening. Drew Brees has been playing like an MVP this year, spreading the ball out to a multitude of receivers, finding his big targets — Jeremy Shockey and Marques Colston in the end zone — and opening up the running lanes for Pierre Thomas. It seems New Orleans has also finally found a use for Reggie Bush. He has been dynamic in the passing game this year as always, but he has been given opportunities to punch it in at the goal line this year. His versatility and athleticism make it tough for defenses to game plan for him in those short-yardage situations, and he has enjoyed great success as a non-traditional goal line back. The offseason acquisition of safety Darren Sharper has given the Saints’ defense an edge it hasn’t had until this year. As long as he and Brees stay healthy, this team is finally a legitimate Super Bowl contender.

2. Minnesota Vikings (NFC North Champ)

At what point do the Brett Favre steroid rumors start swirling? If Favre were a baseball player, Bud Selig would have a team of people picking through his garbage and tapping his phone calls. Seriously, wasn’t he done back in 2006 when he ended a two-season run where he threw nine more interceptions (48) than he did touchdowns (39)? It is hard to believe Favre is having the best season of his career at such an advanced age, but much of the credit has to go to a great offensive line and the presence of Adrian Peterson. “All Day” just keeps getting better as he is just as comfortable banging between the tackles and plowing over defenders as he is running to the outside to break off big gains. As long as he is healthy their offense will be one of the NFL’s best, but what really makes this team scary is how well their defense can put pressure on the opposing quarterback. Kevin and Pat Williams require a lot of attention in the middle, which opens up the edge rush for Jared Allen and Ray Edwards. They have capitalized to the tune of 16 total sacks (10.5 for Allen). Once Antoine Winfield returns from injury to anchor their secondary once more, the Vikings will be primed for a deep playoff run.

3. Dallas Cowboys (NFC East Champ)

It’s hard to know what to expect from the Cowboys this year. It looked like Tony Romo had finally figured things out after an offensive resurgence coming off the bye in week seven, and then last week the offense went out and absolutely laid an egg against a Green Bay defense that allowed 38 points to the lowly Tampa Bay Buccaneers the week before. In the past two weeks, Romo has been unable to get Miles Austin and his big-play ability involved due to the respect defenses are now paying him, and he has had only moderate success finding his other receivers. Roy Williams continues to prove he is not the number one receiver people thought he would be out of college, Jason Witten has only recorded one touchdown this season way back in week two, and Patrick Crayton simply isn’t a guy that can be relied on to shoulder the offensive load. To make matters worse, the Cowboys’ running backs have been banged up, leading to a suspect at best ground attack. The only reason I give Dallas the nod in this spot is because they are already up a game on their competition in the NFC East and they have the least challenging schedule of the teams in contention. They have a lot to prove on offense if they want to be considered seriously in the playoffs, but their defense should be commended for the work they did in their week nine loss, containing Aaron Rodgers and the Packers to only 17 points while on the wrong end of a 3-to-1 turnover margin.

4. Arizona Cardinals (NFC West Champ)

The Cardinals win this spot by default. They are playing in a division that is not so much top-heavy as it is not heavy at all. None of the teams in this division should pose a real threat to challenge for the Super Bowl. Sure, this team made it to the Super Bowl last year and almost shocked the world, but this team didn’t do enough in the offseason to keep up with the NFL’s best. They are essentially rolling out the same team as last season, with an aging Kurt Warner one season closer to retiring to care for his seven children. However, near geriatric Warner throwing to the league’s top receiving duo — Larry Fitzgerald and Anquan Boldin — is the best thing going in an NFC West division replete with anemic offenses. They will win the division, but it is a hollow victory for a team whose defense has been disappointingly mediocre and has enjoyed one of the NFL’s easiest schedules.

5. Green Bay Packers

It is tough to pick who is going to claim the wildcard spots in the NFC because there are so many teams at about the same level talent-wise. I give the Packers this spot because their division isn’t strong throughout and they have already played the Vikings twice (both losses). The teams remaining on their schedule have a combined record of 29-34, and the only really scary team they will face is the Pittsburgh Steelers in week 15. It would make me a little more confident if their defense could show any sort of consistency. Three times they have held their opponents to under 10 points, yet four times their defense has collapsed for 30 or more points. Part of their problem is that they are simply on the field too often. Aaron Rodgers has been spectacular this year, but he can’t get any time to throw the ball behind an offensive line that plays as though they are coached by Moses (Rodgers has been sacked a league-high 41 times). Their ineptitude leads to a lot of short possessions and turnovers. Rodgers is good enough to overcome the porous offensive front and get this team to the playoffs, but it doesn’t look good from there.

6. Atlanta Falcons

It is a little scary that in week nine the Falcons have yet to record a signature win, but looking at their remaining schedule, it appears they may not need one to make the playoffs. Excluding their week 14 slate against the 9-0 Saints, Atlanta’s remaining opponents have a combined record of just 19-34. They also have matchups against fellow wildcard contenders New York and Philadelphia, so they have the ability to control their own destiny if they can get their heads on straight. The Giants and Eagles, meanwhile, will have to play one another while the Falcons beat up on the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. While I’m not exactly crazy about this pick, I think that as long as Michael Turner isn’t hampered by his recent ankle injury, they have the best offense and the easiest schedule of the three teams vying for this spot.