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With general elections being held nationwide tomorrow and polls throughout the country forecasting major shifts in the balance of power, races have proved to be both costly and competitive, even in the waning hours of the 2010 campaign season.
The GOP is poised to make big gains if advance polls are correct. The Republicans, who are expected to rein in spending and reduce the federal budget deficit, are erasing the traditional advantage held by the Democrats.
Riding a wave of voter dissatisfaction two years after they lost 21 seats in the U.S. House of Representatives, Republicans stand a good chance at gaining the 39 seats needed to win a majority and the 10 seats required to take control of the Senate.
Last week, a Gallup poll was released showing a record-setting enthusiasm gap between conservatives and liberals. Despite prolific rallies by Democrats across the country and an emboldened “get out the vote” effort by the Obama administration, Republicans appear to have the advantage over a majority of incumbents.
The poll, which surveyed 918 registered voters, showed enthusiasm and favorability at only 37 percent for Democrats, while the Republicans carried 63 percent. Even so, the Democrats are fighting to hold their ground to the very last minute.
“If everybody who voted in 2008 votes in 2010, we are confident we will win this election,” President Barack Obama said at an Oc t. 25 support rally in Providence, R.I.
What’s more, the 2010 elections have been costly. According to the latest data from the Federal Election Commission, $2 billion has been raised by House and Senate candidates. Democrats are said to have outraised Republicans according to some reports. This frantic fundraising has largely been overshadowed by a tide of spending by outside interest groups in an election year that finds Democrats struggling to stay in office and fend off criticisms.
The atmosphere in Maine is no different, as all three big-ticket races remain competitive in the eleventh hour. The latest gubernatorial polls show Republican candidate Paul LePage with a big lead and independent Eliot Cutler surging ahead of Libby Mitchell, the Democratic candidate.
In a poll of 400 registered voters conducted by Pan Atlantic SMS Group, a Portland-based polling firm, released last Friday, LePage was ahead with 37 percent, followed by Cutler with 31 percent and Mitchell at 22 percent. Independents Shawn Moody and Kevin Scott combined for 4 percent, with the remaining 7 percent undecided.
Two polls released last Thursday showed LePage with 40 percent support.
The first of Thursday’s polls, a Rasmussen poll, had Mitchell and Cutler tied at 26 percent, while the second, a Public Policy Polling survey, showed Cutler at 28 percent and Mitchell at 24 percent.
Also in the race for the Blaine House, the political fodder of the 2010 midterm election continued throughout last week as Cutler decried the actions of his major party opponents. At a press conference last Monday, Cutler disparaged a recent series of attack ads from both the Republicans and Democrats depicting him as an oil spiller, job outsourcer and tax raiser during his time as a lawyer.
The independent candidate from Cape Elizabeth was outraged as he once worked with U.S. Sen. Edmund Muskie on a series of environmental protection laws in addition to calling for major reforms to Maine’s tax structure throughout the campaign.
“These types of ads have the ability to drown out any real discussion of the issues and any real debate over ideas,” Cutler said.
Cutler then pledged to continue running a clean campaign, but his opponents claimed they could back all the accusations. Mitchell’s spokesman, David Loughran, questioned Cutler’s timing and said he wondered why the candidate chose to wait until a week before the election to fight back over ongoing accusations from his time in the private sector.
Maine’s gubernatorial candidates have also engaged in a costly race, according to the latest campaign finance reports. Cutler leads the pack with $1.5 million spent, followed by LePage who has spent $950,000. Mitchell’s campaign has been publicly financed by the Maine Clean Election Act, to date totaling $1.7 million. All figures do not include money spent by non-campaign organizations to air advertisements targeting a specific candidate.
In Maine’s other major races, Democratic incumbent representatives Chellie Pingree and Mike Michaud appear to have lost the momentum they had enjoyed earlier in the race in the first and second U.S. Congressional districts.
In the second district, recent polls show Michaud’s Republican challenger Jason Levesque with a slight lead. And in the first district, Pingree finds herself in a statistical dead heat with Republican challenger Dean Scontras.
In addition to considering candidates for governor and a portion of Maine’s congressional delegation, votes will be tallied for the Maine state legislature, a referendum question and two bond questions.
Question 1 is a citizens’ initiative that would permit developers to build a casino and resort in Oxford County. Pan Atlantic’s poll released on Friday showed the measure receiving 51 percent support against 46 percent opposition.
Question 2 will ask if residents should allow the state to borrow $5 million from private investors to create a dental school and upgrade community dental clinics.
Question 3 will ask if residents wish to allow the state to borrow $9.75 million, which will be matched by federal funds, for the purpose of land conservation, working waterfront preservation and investment in state parks.
The bond questions have been met with mixed support, with proponents of the measures citing a need to develop the state’s resources on all levels and critics denouncing the act of borrowing due to the state’s economic distress.
