Twitter
Facebook
Reddit
Digg
Tell us what you think!Send a letter to the editor about this or any other article in The Maine Campus.
On Sunday, free agent right fielder and former Philadelphia Phillie Jayson Werth signed a seven-year, $126 million contract with the Washington Nationals — good for a four-way tie at 16th on the list of the most lucrative sports contracts of all time in any sport.
Werth, a 32-year-old with a .272 career batting average, will be paid an average of $18 million a season with more total money on one contract than sports legends Shaquille O’Neal, Albert Pujols, Tim Duncan, Ken Griffey Jr. or Brett Favre have ever gotten.
And no, you can’t blame the inflation rate. This deal makes the Obama administration look fiscally conservative. It’s fitting that they will be playing ball in the same neighborhood.
Werth had a breakout year this season, hitting .296 with 27 home runs and 85 RBIs. More importantly, he had a .388 on-base percentage and was fifth in the National League in runs created, a category revered by stat heads such as myself.
To find it, you multiply OBP by slugging percentage by at bats, which removes RBIs from the equation — which is good, because RBIs are a largely worthless statistic, measuring hits unequally for a batter who is rewarded simply for hitting in an advantageous position gained only by the work of others.
While Werth created 120 of his team’s runs this season by himself, Aubrey Huff, the World Champion San Francisco Giants first baseman, created 114 runs and recently re-signed for a two-year, $22 million contract. He’s older at 33, but a valuable short-term pick-up that won’t lock San Fran up. The statistics that matter most are the ones general managers overlook.
The Nationals now will be paying a good player not only a star’s salary, but more than double last year’s entire payroll over his contract. After the seven-year period, he will be 39.
In 2008, ESPN fantasy baseball writer Tristan Cockroft pulled batting data on the 100 players who hit at least 138 home runs since 1998, scaled data to 600 at bats and averaged it. He found 64 percent of the time, a player’s prime offensive year occurs between the ages of 26 and 31.
So, we now must ask the most important question: How many players reached their offensive prime between the ages of 32 and 39?
From ages 32 to 42, the number was 18 percent.
Ask most of the teams who have done it in recent years. Overpaying on a long-term deal for a player over age 30 coming off of a career year virtually always spells less value for a team.
Since signing starting pitcher A.J. Burnett to a whopping five-year, $82 million contract in 2008, the New York Yankees have gotten a mediocre 23 wins and a below average ERA of 4.64. But they can do that. They’re the Yankees, who had a $206 million payroll on 2010’s Opening Day.
Star center fielder Torii Hunter signed a five-year, $90 million deal with the Los Angeles Angels in 2007. Though his play has been stellar compared to career averages before that, he has always been overrated. He has a career season average of just 89 runs created. His fielding is much touted — he won Gold Gloves in center from 2001 to 2009. But his range factor, the number of putouts and assists divided by innings played, indicate he is just above average. In fact, he hasn’t been a top five defensive center fielder since 2004.
Perhaps the worst baseball contract I can recall is one in 2006 that brought the then-35-year-old glorified fourth outfielder Gary Matthews, Jr. to the Angels for five years and $50 million. He is out of baseball right now after being released by the Mets, yet the Angels, who traded him, are still paying him.
Baseball needs more short-term contracts, because long-term deals drive gold-digging players into the arms of big-market teams such as the Yankees. There is no doubt Werth’s contract is making free agent left fielder Carl Crawford — who is 29 and coming off of a career year — salivate. If Werth is worth $125 million over seven years, Crawford is worth $175 million, at least. The Red Sox, late Wednesday, reportedly signed him for seven years and $142 million.
The Red Sox will probably be set for the next three or four years on the field — but they can also stomach the end years of the deal. The difference is the market. While the Sox can develop talent while paying money out, the Nats will be handcuffed.
The long horrific Nationals have the two most exciting prospects of the past decade — 22-year-old starting pitcher Stephen Strasburg and 18-year-old catcher-turned-outfielder Bryce Harper. If they quit trying to match splashes with bigger teams and start to make investments in steady veterans while building a stocked farm system, a model organization wouldn’t be far away.
Instead, they decided to give valuable salary to an aging Werth. I feel the worst for third baseman Ryan Zimmerman, who is 26 and already a better player than Werth is.
I guess I shouldn’t feel awful, because Zimmerman will make more than me — just over $8.9 million in 2011. But that is relative poverty compared to the “star” who just landed in the nation’s capital.
Give the man on the hot corner a stimulus, Barack.
