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This issue’s discussion of the 2011 MLB season preview will focus on the National League Central, the one and only MLB division that includes six different teams.
1. St. Louis Cardinals — Last Year: 2nd Place, 5 GB, (86-76)
St. Louis is home to arguably the league’s best player, first baseman Albert Pujols. In 2010, “the Machine” led the NL in both total home runs and RBI. The team had quite the scare this offseason, failing to reach a contract extension with the three-time MVP, leading to free agency after the season.
All that aside, this team is ready to dominate in 2011. St. Louis is far from a young team, but experience isn’t always a bad thing and can be a deciding factor when it comes down to playoff time — assuming everyone stays healthy.
With the additions of 35-year-old outfielder Lance Berkman and 31-year-old second baseman Ryan Theriot, along with Pujols, four-time All-Star left fielder Matt Holliday and two-time All-Star catcher Yadier Molina, the Cardinals will easily enter this season with the division’s best all-around offensive team.
St. Louis returns two-time All-Star pitcher Chris Carpenter, 20-game winner Adam Wainwright and 2010 Rookie of the Year candidate pitcher Jaime Garcia to a rotation that has a great chance of producing three different pitchers with 15 or more wins.
Expect this season to start off poorly for St. Louis as a team, but come August, a late surge will propel rich experience past Milwaukee and Cincinnati in dramatic fashion — that’s if the team stays healthy and Pujols continues to deliver.
2. Cincinnati Reds — Last Year: 1st Place, (91-71)
By looking at this team’s finish last year, it’s hard to believe they won’t finish first overall this season, especially after they spent an entire offseason locking up the team’s core by spending over $151 million in contract extensions for outfielders Jay Bruce and Joey Votto and pitching aces Bronson Arroyo and Johnny Cueto.
Unless NL MVP Votto is able to have an identical or better season than he did last year, Cincinnati has no way of repeating its division crown.
With that being said, if Bruce can make up for any batting statistics Votto fails to produce, we could witness a duo that collectively eclipses the performances of St. Louis’ Pujols. The biggest signing was that of five-time All-Star Edgar Renteria, who completes an already talented lineup and adds two Gold Glove awards to an infield where 10 already exist.
The 1-2-3 combo of Arroyo, Cueto and All-Star pitcher Edinson Volquez, who’s coming off a 2010 season which included a 50-game drug suspension, is among the league’s best. It will be fun to see if hurler Aroldis Chapman can surpass his record pitch of 105.1 mph, but one thing’s for sure: Cincinnati better watch the 22-year-old’s arm and make sure their prized possession doesn’t end up on the disabled list. If the Reds can’t out-kick the Cardinals, they will be prime contenders for the NL’s wild card spot.
3. Milwaukee Brewers — Last Year: 3rd Place, 14 GB, (77-85)
For a team that lacks pitching, going out to get former Cy Young award winning pitcher Zach Greinke from Kansas City, Shawn Marcum from Toronto and All-Star setup man Takashi Saito from Atlanta certainly shows an effort from Milwaukee to improve their team’s weaknesses. The problem is, even after these offseason moves, the Brewers are still missing a formidable rotation and bullpen.
Pitcher Yovani Gallardo had an above-average season in 2010, but don’t expect there to be another nearly as good. Seven-time All-Star and soon-to-be Hall of Fame closer Trevor Hoffman is gone, and without him, Milwaukee’s starting pitchers must be able to record lengthy outings in order for this team to win.
Batting should not be a problem. Power-slugging first baseman Prince Fielder, three-time All-Star outfielder Ryan Braun, 2010 team-RBI-leader third baseman Casey McGehee and second baseman Rickie Weeks will round up the middle of a respectable lineup. Fielder has produced 192 home runs over his six season career with “The Brew,” but talk of trade will loom over both the 26-year-old’s and Milwaukee’s 2011 seasons.
If Fielder is dealt before the trading deadline arrives in late July, this team’s chances at staying in contention will be greatly diminished, but for now, Milwaukee will give both St. Louis and Cincinnati a run for their money.
4. Chicago Cubs — Last Year: 5th Place, 16 GB, (75-87)
Chicago began a very productive offseason by signing All-Star first baseman Carlos Pena in early December. Pena is coming off an embarrassing 2010 season where he hit just .196, but with some fine tuning from Chicago’s experience-rich hitting coach Rudy Jaramillo, Pena should be able to regain form. The Cubs’ lineup as a whole is in need of a rebound, including two-time All-Star third baseman Aramis Ramirez, who was the team’s best hitter in 2010.
Chicago’s pitching rotation is the nucleus of this team’s success. Four of this year’s five expected rotational pitchers had over 10 wins last year — two of which had 15. The addition of Matt Garza, who threw a no-hitter in July of last year, will join two-time All-Star pitcher Ryan Dempster and three-time All-Star Carlos Zambrano for yet another NL Central 1-2-3 punch worth watching. All-Star closer Carlos Marmol, who posted 38 saves last season, is also back to continue his reliable finishes in close games.
Manager Lou Piniella, who announced his retirement last year late-season, was replaced by former third base coach Mike Quade, who led the Cubs to a 24-13 record in their last 37 games while serving as interim coach. Expect Chicago to have an average season, but there’s very little hope for a spot in the playoffs.
5. Houston Astros — Last Year: 4th Place, 15 GB, (76-86)
Coming off a season where Houston traded away the faces of their franchise, pitcher Roy Oswalt and first baseman Lance Berkman, a giant offseason was almost expected — but never happened. The only notable acquisition came in December, when the Astros signed 31-year-old Bill Hall to a one year contract.
Team leader and three-time All-Star outfielder Carlos Lee had an off year last season and is also involved in many league trade rumors. Expect outfielder Hunter Pence and Lee to combine for the majority of the Astros’ offense.
Pitching is definitely not one of the team’s strengths, although it’s comparably better than their offense. Overall, Houston is a noticeably young team and needs time to develop. If it wasn’t for the atrocious Pittsburgh Pirates, Houston would be the division’s bottom-dweller this year — not primarily because of how bad they are but how good the teams ahead of them will be.
6. Pittsburgh Pirates — Last Year: 6th Place, 34 GB, (57-105)
Not much can be said about this team. Pittsburgh’s 105 losses last year was the league’s worst and leaves the organization begging for a superstar to build the team’s foundation.
Outfielder Andrew McCutchen is probably the only player worth mentioning when reviewing last year’s awful season. The 24-year-old led the team with a .286 batting average and just missed a selection for the All-Star Game. Expect third baseman Pedro Alvarez, another 24-year-old, to join McCutchen as the main source of offensive production.
Four of the top-five expected rotational pitchers had 10 or more losses last season and the closer, Joel Hanrahan, had a whopping six total saves.
It’s almost too bad because the players on this team have little to do with what’s actually to blame for the Pirates’ decline. GM Neal Huntington has got to look forward and find someone whom the team can be built around. Expect the Pirates to have another season worth not remembering and, if lucky, a breakout season for McCutchen to propel the team’s future.
