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“There’s nobody that can beat him,” said Boston Mayor Tom Menino of Sen. Scott Brown. Since Menino uttered these words, many Democrats across Massachusetts wondered if he was right.
Scott Brown was appointed in a 2010 special election last January to fill the seat of the late Edward Kennedy. He defeated favorite Martha Coakley in the midst of the health care debate in Washington, D.C. Brown, who ran as the 41st vote against the health care bill, honed the anger of voters who disliked the bill and won the election by a 51-47 margin.
Recent polls agree with Menino. On paper, nobody can beat him. Next to Massachusetts’ senior Sen. John Kerry, Brown has the highest favorability rating in the Bay State. He has been perceived as a moderate voice in the Senate who keeps his constituents’ above party.
Although many donors have turned on Brown, Republican Party leaders have not. They recognize the importance of keeping him around and have steered his Senate career accordingly.
On the other hand, this is Massachusetts. It’s the crown jewel of blue states, surrounded by blue states. This November, despite a huge wave year for Republicans, Massachusetts defended all of its state-wide elected positions and even gained a seat in the State Senate, where they now enjoy a 36-4 seat majority.
To say Brown will walk away with the election easily would be premature. Although Brown’s people would have everyone think they won the special election in 2010 by huge margins, it must be noted Brown won by four points. It was one of the closest state-wide elections Massachusetts has had in years.
Making it tougher for Brown, it is a presidential election year, which traditionally has a much higher turnout than other years. Since President Barack Obama will win in Massachusetts pretty safely, there is a good chance he will have coattails for Democrats in Massachusetts.
There are no candidates who are going to enjoy the same amount of name recognition Scott Brown does. Current Gov. Deval Patrick and Joseph Kennedy, former congressman and president of Citizens Energy, have said they aren’t interested in running. Unless Dems can find another Kennedy in the next few months (there is an assistant district attorney), it looks like the Democratic candidate will need to do all they can to up their profile amongst voters.
When looking for a Senate candidate, the first place people usually look to is the Congressional Representatives in the state. Massachusetts has a handful of these who are reportedly interested in running for Senate.
Prior to the special election in 2010, a group of Massachusetts congressmen reportedly met and decided the primary was only big enough for one of them. If multiple Representatives were to jump in, the vote would split in too many ways to make them viable. I would not be surprised if a similar meeting took place this time around.
Rep. Michael Capuano, D- of Somerville, ran against Coakley in 2011 and has since shot barbs at the Coakley Campaign. Once a sure bet to toss his name in the ring, Capuano has since gotten in trouble for advocating union protesters to “get a little bloody.” Now his candidacy seems up in the air.
Another Congressional candidate considering a Senate bid is Rep. Stephen Lynch. Lynch is as blue-collar as they come. Growing up in South Boston’s Old Colony housing projects, Lynch would go on to become president of Iron Workers Local 7 and serve in the U.S. House of Representatives. Lynch has been somewhat of a nonconformist within the Democratic Party, though. Some believe it would be harder for him to win the primary than the general election.
Reps. Ed Markey, Jim McGovern and Richard Neal are also possible candidates who have downplayed the possibility of a Senate run.
Due to the fact that all of the previous names are cut from similar cloth and are likely to draw the same kinds of supporters, they will likely get together and all get behind one candidate like they did last time.
There are a handful of businessmen who are potential candidates. Obviously these people are fine when it comes to money, but the hurdle they have to get over is trust with the electorate.
One of them is City Year founder Alan Khazei, who was endorsed by the Boston Globe when he ran in the Special Election Primary a year ago. He has acknowledged he is interested. Robert Pozen is another businessman who has declared his interest if the Democratic Party only asks him.
The businessmen who ran in the special election last time had trouble getting people’s trust. This problem will probably continue to haunt these candidates in the next primary as well.
There are also a handful of mayors who have declared they are interested. Mayor Menino in Boston included himself when he said, “Nobody could beat him.” But the mayors of Newton and Salem think they can oust Brown.
Setti Warren of Newton has been mentioned by Gov. Patrick as a potential candidate. Patrick and Warren have similar characteristics and if Warren can replicate Patrick’s organization, he would be a force to be reckoned with. Mayor Kim Driscoll of Salem has also been quoted as saying she’s interested.
Mayors have the luxury of a home base to work out of and are never lost in the shuffle when it comes to regional politics. They have hard achievements they can point to on the trail as well. This is very appealing to voters.
The amount of people who are considering running speaks to how wide open the race is. It also speaks to how short the bench is for Democrats in Massachusetts. If one of these candidates cannot jump out and impress voters, it could be a long, depressing cycle for Massachusetts Democrats in a state that once was a sure thing.
Pete Christopher is a fourth-year secondary education student. His columns will appear every Thursday.
