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Are you wondering why it’s 60 degrees in the middle of November?
It’s because the MLB hot stove is heating up, and a star-studded free-agent list is set to make millions of dollars by swinging bats or throwing balls.
Here’s a list of the top 10 free agents of 2011 along with a highly scientific, small margin-of-error estimation of where they should play, where they will play and how much they will play for.
No. 1: Albert Pujols, first baseman, St. Louis Cardinals
When all is said and done, Pujols will be remembered as one of the greatest players to ever play the game. But before that, he wants to be paid like what he is — the best player in the game today.
While studs like Brewers outfielder Ryan Braun and Dodgers center fielder Matt Kemp — who just signed a $160 million extension — are nipping on “Phat Albert’s” toes as the most talented player in baseball, neither commands the other team to work around him like Pujols does.
And after giving a pretty steep hometown discount to St. Louis — Pujols wasn’t in the top 20 paid players in 2011 — he wants to get paid like the top man in the game.
The three-time MVP has drawn out negotiations with the Cardinals, but it’s hard to imagine a scenario in which Pujols leaves St. Louis. The two major free agent players each year — the Yankees and Red Sox — already have eight-figure first basemen, and the other major spenders — the Cubs — are transitioning to a new regime and aren’t ready to hand over a 10-year, $250 million deal. I can’t see Pujols leaving his team just after winning a World Series.
Where he should go: St. Louis Cardinals
Where he will go: St. Louis Cardinals, 10 years, $248 million
No. 2: Prince Fielder, first baseman, Milwaukee Brewers
As a casual fan of the Beer Makers, I’d love for Fielder to stay in Wisconsin and team with Braun to bring a title to Milwaukee.
Unfortunately, I believe Fielder will find his way to the American League and wreak havoc on the Red Sox’ short porch in right field.
The Texas Rangers are heading into the winter bitter over back-to-back World Series defeats and will convince themselves that they’re one piece away from getting over the hump — and with Fielder, they may be right.
Where he should go: Milwaukee Brewers
Where he will go: Texas Rangers, eight years, $172 million
No. 3: Jose Reyes, shortstop, New York Mets
There’s not one star more likely to change teams than Reyes, who is surely going to leave behind the ravaged Mets and the horrible September collapses that went along with them.
The problem is that it’s hard to predict where Reyes will land. When healthy, he is as good a player as there is in the league, as he showed last year, posting a .334 batting average, the highest in the National League.
The other issue is that Reyes only played in 126 games last year and has missed more than 25 games in five of his nine seasons.
Regardless, a team looking to spend like the Nationals or Marlins will be able to reel him in and make Reyes the highest-paid shortstop in the game, while division rivals the Braves would love to trot him out at short.
Where he should go: Atlanta Braves
Where he will go: Miami Marlins, six years, $108 million
No. 4: C.J. Wilson, pitcher, Texas Rangers
Wilson, along with White Sox starter Mark Buehrle, are the only top-line starters on the market this year, but I give the edge to Wilson because he’s two years younger.
Coming off a year with a sub-3.00 earned run average, Wilson struggled a bit during the Rangers’ World Series run, but it was after a career-high 223 innings pitched in his second full season as a starter.
While the Rangers will try to keep him, they will have to massively overpay to keep the pinstripes away.
Where he should go: Texas Rangers
Where he will go: New York Yankees, five years, $85 million
No. 5: Jimmy Rollins, shortstop, Philadelphia Phillies
While I’d love to see Rollins strut out to short in the shadow of the Green Monster, his tenure with the Phillies is so rich that it would be odd seeing him in another color — although Sox red and Phillies red aren’t too far apart.
The Phillies are committed to taking another run at a title, as the four-year, $50 million deal to former Sox closer Jonathan Papelbon demonstrates. Philly will keep Rollins for another four years.
Where he should go: Boston Red Sox
Where he will go: Philadelphia Phillies, four years, $52 million
No. 6: Mark Buehrle, pitcher, Chicago White Sox
One of the most consistent starters of the last decade, Buehrle already has a championship, has pitched a no-hitter and a perfect game and even has three Gold Glove Awards.
However, Buehrle has never been considered one of the game’s best, just one of the “other guys” who gets mentioned toward the tail end of the debate.
With an ERA hovering in the high threes and with him getting up in age — 33 by next season — it may be time for a switch to the NL, where you get the benefit of the pitcher batting.
Where he should go: Philadelphia Phillies — why not?
Where he will go: Washington Nationals, four years, $57 million
No. 7, 8, 9, 10: David Ortiz, Aramis Ramirez, Carlos Beltran, Carlos Peña (Red Sox, Cubs, Giants, Cubs)
I was running out of time so I decided to cut things short, grouping the aging Latin sluggers together and sorting who will go where, as where one goes could affect the others.
After the turmoil that was the Red Sox’ September, Ortiz was one of the players painted in a bad light, coming off as selfish and out for his stats rather than his team.
Even with the way things ended for the 2011 Red Sox, Ortiz’s production is too hard to replace without paying a premium, and the Sox should have the inside track on Papi with a two-year, $25 million deal.
Like Reyes, Ramirez all but has his bags packed and is ready to say “adios” to Chicago after eight and a half years and “hola” to the Dominican Republic’s favorite team, the Miami Marlins, at three years, $35 million.
After a midseason trade brought Beltran to his fourth team, a stint on the free-agent market for the second time will yield his fifth team, as the Sox will pony up for J.D. Drew’s replacement and snag Beltran for three years, $33 million.
Peña went the same route that Rangers third baseman Adrian Beltre took with the Sox and signed a one-year deal, essentially a tryout for a long-term contract.
Unfortunately for Peña, his 2011 campaign won’t capture the $64 million payday that Beltre got, but someone will pay for a first baseman who has hit at least 25 home runs in each of the last five seasons — someone like the Brewers at two years, $24 million.
