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A slew of high-profile GOP endorsements in recent weeks and a sound victory in the Florida primary have many Maine College Republicans guessing presidential candidate Mitt Romney will likely be the party’s victor in upcoming state caucuses.
Though many of the state’s college Republican groups have made no formal endorsements, some individuals — along with prominent Maine Republicans — are predicting a win for Romney on Feb. 11, a date when the nonbinding results of Maine’s caucuses are announced and the first step is taken in awarding the state’s 24 delegates.
Caucus-goers will head to their respective voting precincts beginning Feb. 4 for a week of deliberation on who stands the best chance of beating President Barack Obama in the 2012 general election.
Though Maine’s caucuses generate little fanfare in comparison to other battleground states like Iowa or New Hampshire, voting overlaps with other contests in Nevada, Colorado and Minnesota, all of which create an opportunity for the Romney campaign to jump ahead and gain a quick edge as it presses on toward greater nominating challenges in the coming months.
Romney, who won Maine’s 2008 caucuses, may also find Rep. Ron Paul of Texas standing between himself and the state’s 24 delegates, according to Tyler LeClair, president of the Maine College Republicans.
“I think that Ron Paul definitely has a strong following with the youth of this nation and he has considerable support here in Maine,” LeClair said. “But at the same time, others are firmly supporting Mitt Romney.
“It’s going to be a pretty solid win for Romney in Maine,” he added. “I’m thinking we’ll see something similar to what just happened in Florida, but with things switched around and Paul in second place with 20 or 30 percent of the vote.”
On Jan. 31, Romney, a former Massachusetts governor, handily defeated runner-up Newt Gingrich by 14 percentage points in the Florida primary, winning the state’s 50 delegates.
Former Pennsylvania U.S. Sen. Rick Santorum nipped Romney by 34 votes to win the Iowa caucus, while former Speaker of the House Newt Gingrich won South Carolina in resounding fashion over Romney.
Now, Romney is leading the way, having won 65 of 97 delegates awarded in the first four state races, in Iowa, New Hampshire, South Carolina and Florida. Paul, the only candidate who hasn’t won a caucus or primary, finished a distant fourth in Florida, a state he barely campaigned in.
Thus far, Paul has been the only presidential candidate to visit Maine. While other candidates stumped in Florida, he made a two-day trek across Maine that started on Jan. 27, where his six events from Bangor to Alfred drew throngs of enthusiastic supporters.
“I’m staying neutral, but it’s going to come down to Romney and Paul, there’s no doubt,” Maine Republican Party Chairman Charles Webster said of the Maine race. “Santorum and Gingrich just don’t have any presence in the state and I’ve been hearing Romney and Paul’s names come up consistently.”
Webster, who attended Paul’s Bangor event, said there is a tremendous amount of support among Maine’s younger demographic for the candidate, something he says could lead to either an upset or at least a strong finish.
“The young people here are really attracted to Paul,” he said. “I’m not sure why, but they are.”
The Texas congressman’s best showing to date came in the New Hampshire primary, where he took second place with 23 percent of the vote, finishing behind Romney, who won with 39 percent.
Robert Flores, co-chairman of the Bowdoin College Republicans, said his group will make no endorsement, a decision reinforced by an organizational policy barring any vote not reached unanimously.
Still, he put things into perspective by saying, “I kind of see the state going along the lines of the New Hampshire vote.”
Flores was unwilling to provide specifics on the group’s recent meetings, but he said many discussions have been similar to “hotly contested debates,” a trend being witnessed by other college Republican leaders across the state.
“It has certainly been an interesting and entertaining race. We have a lot of people split in our group right now. Everyone has their guy,” said Eric Lichtenberg, chairman of the University of Maine College Republicans. “So rather than make an endorsement, it’s better to watch the candidates slug it out and then rally behind the party’s nominee.”
However divided Maine’s College Republicans may be — or whatever the level of infighting among the candidates, party stalwarts and Republican voters alike — this primary season has been characterized by a strong desire to defeat Obama.
The candidate best suited to pose such a challenge and win the White House is a tough question, according to Lichtenberg.
“It really all comes down to the campaign. Each candidate has their own strengths and weaknesses,” he said. “This year is very similar to 2004 when Bush was beatable, but if you remember, Kerry ran a terrible campaign. If the Republican party mismanages this, it might not go our way.”
In any event, many of Maine’s student Republican groups have vowed to doggedly campaign for whoever the party nominates.
“Typically, we don’t make endorsements for these kinds of contests, and I share this sentiment,” LeClair said. “Whoever the nominee happens to be is who we’re going to get behind and volunteer for. It’s about unity.”
Bangor Daily News