There are two things you should know about Indiana. Its polls are the very first to close in the entire United States, doing so at 6 p.m., and that Donald Trump is going to win its 11 electoral votes by a wide margin. The blood-red state, which is rural, quite religious and has an economy predicated on small business and agriculture only voted for the Democratic nominee four times in the past 100 years.
Despite its lack of competitiveness in the traditional sense, within Indiana lie several bellwether counties that may hold the key to knowing where Kamala Harris or Trump are likely to be strongest, and what that means for states where votes are not likely to come in until much later.
Hamilton County
The first of these critical counties is Hamilton County, a sprawling suburban region that contains the northern reaches of the Indianapolis metropolitan area. The main demographic of Hamilton and its affluent, well-developed towns is the one which determined the narrative of the past three election cycles—college-educated white voters, whose disgust with Trump has seen them lurch towards the Democratic Party and deliver wins in places where even ten years ago, Democratic victories were nearly unthinkable. Hamilton County has been ground zero for Democratic improvements among these voters, with Biden winning a record high 45.4% of the vote here in 2020. Even Barack Obama only won 38.5% of the vote in his shock 2008 win in Indiana.
For these reasons, Hamilton County will be the single clearest indicator of how the election could go. A considerable Harris overperformance bodes well for her in northern suburbs with similar attributes, such as those of Grand Rapids and Pittsburgh. Barring a significant collapse in her share of non-college white voters elsewhere, a substantial improvement in Hamilton County would put her well on the path to winning the industrial “Blue Wall” states that would deliver her exactly 270 electoral votes even without any Sun Belt states. Snagging an outright victory would indicate a massive shift in her direction among suburban voters, especially suburban women, and would also signal that Georgia, North Carolina and Arizona—all states where Democrats do not rely on non-college white voters—all remain in play, despite polling indications that these states lean towards Trump.
However, if Trump were to keep her gains in Hamilton County minimal and remain around 50% of the total vote share, Harris’ path to a nationwide win gets increasingly narrow, and she cannot use suburban voters alone to propel her to victory. If Trump were to improve upon his 52.2% showing in Hamilton County once all votes are counted, you can go to sleep early knowing that America has elected its first president since Grover Cleveland to non-consecutive terms.
Marion County
While the Harris campaign will be eagerly awaiting results out of Hamilton County, the Trump campaign will have their eyes fixed upon Marion County, twenty minutes south and home to Indianapolis, the state’s capital and a large urbanized metropolis home to roughly one million people. Compared to its suburbs, Indianapolis is vastly more diverse (with a substantial black population and a not-insignificant Latino population) and has a lower average income. These communities are traditionally predicted to have lower turnout than areas with greater educational attainment, and Harris’ hopes here largely rest on an aggressively-mobilized contingent of volunteers ensuring these voters turn out.
Both campaigns have prioritized these voters, as some polling suggested that both black men and Hispanic men have drifted towards the Trump campaign. Trump, for his part, made extensive overtures towards male voters through his appearances on “bro-coded” media like the Joe Rogan Experience podcast, and has appealed to black men specifically by emphasizing what he believes to have been his unfair prosecution. If the gains among black voters that the Trump campaign dreams of are realized, Democrats are all but locked out of winning Georgia, North Carolina, Wisconsin and likely Pennsylvania even with a modest Harris improvement among white voters. But if Harris can remain stable in the city, or even improve upon Biden’s numbers with black voters through gains with women concerned about access to abortion (which has been banned in GOP-dominated Indiana except when considering life of the mother), she is well-positioned to win the aforementioned states and therefore the election.
The south end of Marion County is populated by more exurbs, although less densely-populated and less educated than those to the north of the city. These municipalities, which are separated by townships but technically part of Indianapolis proper, will also be key to understanding the less affluent and majority-white post-industrial communities surrounding cities such as Detroit and Philadelphia. Communities like these helped power Barack Obama’s surprise 2008 win in the state, and Biden made modest reversals in Hillary Clinton’s pitiful numbers here. If Harris can avoid dropping back to Clinton’s lows on the south end of Marion County, she will undoubtedly feel good about her chances in the Blue Wall.
LaPorte County
Democrats were once strong in LaPorte County, home to Michigan City, Indiana Dunes National Park and populated mainly by working-class white voters without college degrees. But as American industry declined as a result of NAFTA and cultural tensions within the liberal coalition became exacerbated by populists like Donald Trump, whose messaging was often aimed directly at these voters in 2016, LaPorte and other similar counties slipped out of the blue tent. LaPorte’s relative lack of religiosity, urbanity (it lies between Gary, the eastern pillar of Chicagoland, and South Bend, home to Notre Dame), and reliance on tourism meant that it stayed in the Democratic column for longer than most counties of the post-industrial type. It voted for Obama both times by substantial margins, but then flipped into a county where Trump led by between 6-7% of the vote in both 2016 and 2020.
Look for Harris to maintain roughly 45% of the vote here, in between Biden and Clinton’s numbers in the county. This would indicate that the Democratic hemorrhaging among working-class white voters has been stopped, at least for this cycle, and would indicate that Harris may not even need to improve much among other demographics; barring major gains for Trump in the urban core, the Rust Belt states would likely fall into her camp in this scenario as they had for Biden. If she were to receive around 47% of the vote or more, it’s likely that she would be declared president-elect by the time most Americans wake up on November 6. However, if she does worse than Clinton’s 44%, she will be at a massive disadvantage on the path to 270.
One thing to note about LaPorte County: its polls don’t close until 7 p.m. Eastern as it lies within the Central time zone, meaning it will be about an hour behind the rest of Indiana but still well ahead of states with similar demographics such as Wisconsin and Pennsylvania.
Bottom line
There are endless scenarios that could transpire on election night. But these three counties in Indiana provide the only reliable metric that can predict what may happen later in the night, more so than polls or economic indicators or how campaigns privately feel about their chances.
The bottom line is: if Harris gains in Hamilton County and remains stagnant in the other two counties, she will likely carry at least the Blue Wall. If she gains in all three, she is almost certain to win enough electoral votes in states that hinge on correlated demographics, and could easily sweep all seven swing states. If Trump were to gain among urban non-white voters in Indianapolis, stay above 50% of the vote in Hamilton County, and increase his share in LaPorte County, he would be practically certain to win the Sun Belt states, and would likely be favored in the Rust Belt as well. And if none of these numbers budge too much from 2020, that means we’re in for a long night.
I don’t claim to know how this race will go, and the early results out of Indiana could prove to be totally not indicative of what transpires in the swing states. But it is likely that what happens there on November 5th will reverberate through the rest of the nation as the night continues. Whether Harris sweeps the swing states or Trump wins in a squeaker, do yourself a favor and enjoy an earlier night than the millions of other anxious Americans relentlessly refreshing their news coverage. The signs are all there, if you know where to look.
