On Sept. 27, Political Analyst Charlie Cook spoke to University of Maine students and community members during a free public lecture at the Donald P. Corbett Business Building. Cook is one of the most accomplished United States political analysts in the last half-century. In 1984, he founded The Cook Political Report, famously providing independent analysis on United States elections for Congress, Governor races, and the Presidency. Cook frequently appears on national television networks to participate in election discourse.
The event was hosted by UMaine’s William S. Cohen Institute for Leadership and Public Service. At the start of his lecture, Cook praised Cohen for his tremendous history of public service. Cohen, who is from Bangor, served Maine as a member in both the US House of Representatives and the Senate.
“UMaine was so fortunate to host Charlie Cook, one of the most respected analysts of U.S. politics, for a lecture about the 2024 campaign dynamics,” said Dr. Richard Powell, the Founding Director of the Cohen Institute.
Cook broke down the 2024 White House race between Democratic candidate, Vice President Kamala Harris, and Republican candidate, Former President Donald Trump. Based on polling trends, Cook believes that the election will more or less be decided by seven swing states: Wisconsin, Michigan, Pennsylvania, Georgia, North Carolina, Arizona and Nevada. In 2016, Trump won six of the seven swing states mentioned. In contrast, Joe Biden won six out of seven swing states in the 2020 election.
Swing states are often decided by independent voters. Cook believes that in 2024, between eight and 12 percent of voters are truly independent. However, he thinks that only about half of those people will vote, leaving the independent voter percentage between four and six for this election.
Cook also discussed key races in Congress. Republican Congress candidates appear to be polling well, and Cook believes that Republicans will grow their majority to either 52 or 53 seats in the Senate. Many of the close races are incumbent Democrats defending in purple or Republican territory, which according to Cook, is not a great formula for success.
Cook ended the lecture by addressing first time voters in the room. He advised them to vote for a civil candidate that will represent both sides of the political spectrum, and work with others to solve problems. He noted that political bipartisanship is decreasing in Washington D.C. and politics should be about policy, not partisan power.
“Cook was very knowledgeable, and it was entertaining to hear him speak,” said Third-year Political Science Student Beau Michaud.
Cook noted that Maine is unique in its voting trends. Voters in the state still believe in bipartisanship. In 2020, Maine was the only state to split its President-Senate ticket, electing a Democrat as President, and a Republican as Senator. Maine also splits its electoral votes into the two Congressional Districts, instead of a winner-take-all system, like 48 other states and Washington D.C. have.
“Very small shifts in voter sentiment have the potential for dramatic change in political and policy outcomes,” said Powell, who is also the John Mitchell Nickerson professor of political science. “I hope this will remind everyone in our community of the importance of getting out to vote this fall.”
